Natural rubber macro environment gathered in a bearish market or accelerate bottom

Since June, the oscillation Hujiao downward trend in the overall market, the major 1509 contract from June 1 15,245 yuan / ton, the highest point all the way down the oscillation, July 7 minimum detection to 12,550 yuan / ton, down points up to 2695 yuan / ton, down nearly 18%, exceeding market expectations. At present the major factors in the continuing ferment, market or accelerate bottom.

Macro-studded bad atmosphere

Greece debt worries intensified international market, increasing the risk out of the euro. July 5 Greek national referendum preliminary results show that more than half of Greeks do not accept the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund proposed to solve the Greek debt crisis, the financial rescue plan. This result means that Greece is likely to be forced out of the euro. If Greece out of the euro, it is bound to affect the pattern of capital flows around the world, with the entire euro area economy and the global economic impact.

At the same time, the international crude oil market is not calm. After several rounds of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear efforts, the final agreement is expected in the final period. Iran’s crude oil exports from the sanctions situation, its crude oil export volume was 2.5 million barrels from 2011 / day decreased to 100 in 2014 barrels / day. If the agreement, the ban on Iranian oil exports will be lifted, the international market will have more supply inflows, making the international oil prices under pressure.

Expected to remain abundant supply side

Since the beginning of the new plastic glue cut open lower yield, combined with open cut of this year than in previous years but has been delayed, resulting in a slight lag glue output. And into June after the natural rubber producing areas of good weather, abundant rainfall and tapping expedited, and a lot of glue production began to recover. With the gradual recovery of the new plastic listed volume, producing raw material prices began to fall sharply, to support rubber prices weakened, and even a certain drag. July-August is still the glue producing a sustained recovery growth phase, in the absence of speculative factors related to weather interference, supply-side situation expected to remain abundant on rubber prices will remain moderately bearish influence.

Weak downstream demand significantly

Lower tire factory started from the situation, as of July 3, the domestic steel tire capacity utilization fell to 69.5%, falling for two consecutive weeks; semi-steel tire capacity utilization fell to 70.2% for three consecutive weeks decline. With the advent of summer consumption season, tire factory operating rate will continue to decline.

Similarly, the terminal heavy truck auto sales slowdown trend continues.June domestic heavy truck market about sales of all types of vehicles 47,000, down 26 percent from 63,720 last year, the chain fell 9 percent in May sales of 51,712. Thus, the heavy truck market is six months fell by more than two number. The July-August and the traditional off-season for the heavy truck sales, the chain falling demand a foregone conclusion. Heavy truck market recovery has yet to be continued to pick up in real estate and infrastructure investment and further overweight.

In short, although short-term negative factors relevant market will continue to suppress Hujiao futures disk may accelerate bottom, but continue down the space is limited, the operation does not recommend chasing empty sharply. Conversely, long-term Hujiao 1601 contract may be concerned at 13,000 yuan / ton in the vicinity of the midline buying opportunity.