The growth rate of Chinese auto market in 2015 is estimated to be 7% to 9%

As usual, the demand of auto market in January should be the highest. Many customers who have purchasing plan will buy cars after getting year-end bonus. But this year is different. As the research shows, the sales of passenger cars in January 2015 was as bad as September 2014, holding the line on month-on-month basis and increasing by 10% on year-on-year basis. The growth less than 10% of passenger car market will be common in the future.

In January, China Automotive Industry Association had mentioned the growth rate of Chinese auto market would be around 7% as same as Chinese GDP and the sales volume would be 25,130,000, among which domestic sales volume would be 24,270,000 and exporting sales volume would be 860,000. The related data shows the production and sales volumes were 23,722,900 and 23,491,900 in 2014, increasing by 7.3% and 6.9% on year-on-year basis. The growth rates of production and sales in 2014 declined by 7.5% and 7% on year-on-year basis. Chinese Automotive Technology & Research Center was more confident for auto market in 2015 and thought the growth rate would be 9% due to subsidy policy quitted and new energy vehicle accepted. Many securities dealers also thought the growth rate would be between 7% and 9%. Auto enterprises are also cautious about the growth. The sales target of Beijing Hyundai in 2015 is 1.16 million and growth rate is 3.5. The data for Toyota are 1.1 million and 6.8%. 2 million and 10% are the target for Shanghai Volkswagen.

Many research institutions forecast the growth rate of Chinese economy will keep 7% which is the lowest during past few years. Auto market enters into stable stage due to slow GDP growth. Customers tend to be more rational due to structural adjustment of macro economy, low demand and continuous deflation, which is a bad news for auto market. Auto enterprises will use all skills to response, among which new cars are most useful. As reporters analyses, there had been 36 new cars during past January. There will be more than 30 important SUV models and China Automotive Industry Association forecasts the sales volume of SUV will be 5,100,000 and the growth rate will be 25%. The effect of policy won't be as big as past few years.

This stable growth of auto market has both advantage and disadvantage for distributors. The advantage is the stock pressure for distributors will be less but the stock reserving will be more difficult at the same time. This situation will be helpful for market price and enterprise operation. The disadvantage is the price-off promotions will be less effective due to stable demand of auto market in peak period. Besides, this growth raises requirements of operation capacity for distributors.

China Automotive Industry Association predicts the sales volume of saloon car will be 12,510,000 and the growth rate will be 1% in 2015. This data for SUV and MPV are 5,100,000, 25% and 2,580,000 and 35%. 1,060,000 and -20% are the data for multi-purpose passenger cars. The total sales volume of passenger car in 2015 will be around 21,250,000 and the growth rate will be 8%.